Errol Spence vs. Danny Garcia: Can Spence Pull it Off?

errol spence

For a time, Spence was then spoken as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the game. 

He smashed his way through 25 fights, 21 by knockout, before stepping into the ring against Shawn Porter and brawling with him… and still winning. 

But shortly after the split win against Shawn Porter, Errol Spence flipped his Ferrari, cartwheeling down the road. The wreck was so bad that after several rotations, Spence was thrown from the car. 

After a harrowing, near life-ending car crash, Errol Spence is taking on Danny Garcia. There was no warm-up fight against a tomato can. Spence is laying it on the line right off the bat. 

So, is he fully recovered? 

In some ways, the Pandemic may have helped Errol Spence not be left behind the pack. The first half of the year saw almost no sports at all. Since the summer only, have live events started taking place in North America again. So, he’s been able to stay in shape and train since his recovery, not falling too far behind. 

But the question is, will he still handle punches the same? After all, his head trauma was severe enough that he needed multiple dental surgeries and doesn’t remember a little more than three weeks of his life. I know this question has been asked a lot.  And his camp has responded that he wouldn’t set foot in the ring if they were not sure. But you know how sometimes after a fighter with a steel chin takes a hard knock out, they suddenly have a glass jaw? 

We won’t know until he takes a hard shot from Garcia. Still, Spence is the more technically sound fighter. This fact is why he’s a -455 favorite on the boxing odds boards. As Keith Thurman said, he leads with a long, stiff jab, taking advantage of his reach. Then he has that nasty right hook that he pounds into the temple. But, Danny Garcia is still salty from losing back to back. He went down to Thurman and Porter. Even Thurman said that he was the biggest puncher he’s ever stood against. So, Spence better not leave his chin hanging. 

And though the odds say Spence is an easy winner, not everybody agrees. Many world champions boxers and pro trainers think Garcia will win this fight. Andre Berto said [paraphrased] that Garcia is going to make Spence prove that he’s fully recovered. He’s going to come at him and keep punching and punching until a big one lands. 

Julian Williams said that he thinks people are looking past Danny Garcia. But he’s super motivated and may take the victory in a close battle. This is what I think too. Garcia is carrying a massive chip on his shoulder right now. He needs this win. On top of this, a bunch of people think it’s a 50-50 fight.

Fight Prediction

I believe that Danny Garcia has to set the pace of this fight right off the bell. He needs to go fast and hard to take advantage of any ring rust or conditioning issues as a result of extended time off and accident recovery. If he can draw Errol Spence into a slugfest with him, he will almost certainly win the fight. 

If Garcia pushes hard right out of the gate and works behind his solid jab, double and triple tapping to find his range, he could create some real problems for Spence. But He’ll have to be careful with his telegraphed lead-hook. He shows it from a mile away, opening himself up for hard counter shots.

If Garcia can hurt Spence early, he has a legitimate shot of winning this fight. But if he lets the fight go on into the later round, the champ will adapt to his gameplan and start to pick him apart. It all hinges on Danny Garcia starting hard. So, I lean on Errol Spence because Garcia is usually more of a slow starter who feels his opponent out a bit.  For that reason, I believe Danny Garcia will ramp up the speed a little too late, and Errol Spence will out box him.