Jake Paul vs Julio Chavez Jr Fight Week Odds
The betting odds for the Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. fight have shifted since first being released, with Jake Paul consistently favored but seeing his odds fluctuate as the event approached.
Jake Paul and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. are set to fight on Saturday, June 28, 2025, at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The main event ring walks are scheduled for around 8:00 p.m. Pacific Time. The fight will be broadcast live on DAZN.
Initially, Paul opened as an extremely heavy favorite, around -1100, meaning a bettor would have had to risk $1100 to win $100. At those odds, the implied probability of a Paul win was extremely high, in this review that’s nearly 92%.
Chavez Jr., meanwhile, was listed as a significant underdog at +590, offering a $590 profit for a $100 bet.
As the fight date neared, the odds moved in Chavez Jr.’s favor, but only slightly. Most major sportsbooks settled on Paul as a -600 to -750 favorite (risk $600–$750 to win $100), with Chavez Jr. at +390 to +450 (bet $100 to win $390–$450). This means the market still saw Paul as a strong favorite, but not quite as dominant as the initial lines suggested.
The implied probability for Paul winning settled around 83–88%, while Chavez Jr.’s chances were about 17–22%.
In terms of method of victory, oddsmakers and bettors expected the fight to likely go the distance, with the over/under for total rounds set at 8.5, and the over favored at -225. The odds for the fight going the distance were -170, and Paul winning by any decision was the most likely outcome, priced at -110.
For those looking for a knockout, Paul was listed at +140 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, while Chavez Jr. was a longshot at +1000 to win by stoppage. A draw was priced at +1800, indicating it was highly unlikely.
Stakes for bettors varied widely. For those backing Paul, risking $600–$750 would net a $100 profit if he won. For Chavez Jr., a $100 bet could pay out $390 – $450 if he pulled off the upset. Prop bets, like Paul winning by knockout or multiple knockdowns, offered higher payouts for riskier plays, but the consensus was that Paul was expected to win, most likely by decision or late stoppage.
While the odds moved a bit as the fight got closer, Jake Paul remained a strong favorite to win, with most of the value in betting on the method of victory or whether the fight would go the distance. Chavez Jr. was seen as a live underdog, but not
